On the participation of Turkey in the Yemeni conflict

As the French intelligence sources say, the military and power apparatus of Turkey is actively mobilizing not only in Syria, Iraq, Libya, but is also increasingly manifesting itself in Yemen. So, in recent weeks, the Turkish intelligence service MIT has significantly increased its presence in Yemen, which is considered by some experts as a prelude to a larger Turkish operation. In mid-May, under the cover of Turkish NGOs, a group of MIT employees infiltrated the Yemeni provinces of Shabwa and Marib.
The arrival of humanitarian workers was facilitated by the Minister of the Interior of the internationally recognized government Ahmed al-Meissari and the Minister of Transport Saleh al-Jabwani, who are members of the Islam party. This initiative shows that Saudi-sponsored exile president Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi, who is opposed to receiving Turkish humanitarian aid, still has little control over the situation on the ground.
The Turkish infiltration of Yemen was actively promoted by the non-governmental organization Insani Yardim Vakfi (IYV), which is also considered close to the Muslim Brotherhood. To be more precise, this structure is used by Ankara for a developed network of schools and universities throughout Africa, from the point of view of seizing the initiative on the humanitarian field from the schools of the ardent antipode of R.T. Erdogan, Imam F. Gulen. In addition, IYV structures were involved in the transfer of weapons to Syrian rebels and the transfer of financial tranches of the Somali terrorist organization Al-Shabab.
Amid the protracted conflict between the forces supported by Saudi Arabia and the Howsite rebels in Yemen, Ankara is trying to play its game in Yemen, intensifying its support for the Islam party in order to ensure its progressive advancement to South Yemen. Ankara’s actions in Yemen take place while its armed forces are actively involved in other countries, which objectively complicates her any meaningful military operations in this country.
Ankara is currently playing “number two” in Yemen after Qatar, which actually finances all the military advancements of the Islamist tribal units in the south of the country. Again, we note that both Qatari and Turks do not care about the fate of independent South Yemen: in this way they respond to the attempts of their UAE antagonist to create their own protectorate in Aden. It is precisely this moment of tactics that caused the emergence of Turkish humanitarian funds with a sad reputation in Yemen, which is completely different from military intervention.
Participation on so many fronts means that Turkey is in a state of very fragile balance within its armed forces, which is further undermined by the internal struggle. In this situation, the dispersal of forces also on Yemen is impractical not only for military reasons, but also for political ones. Hence, so far only the exclusively humanitarian aspect of influencing the situation in the framework of organizing the material and technical supply of forces loyal to themselves.
The successful support by the MIT of the Government of National Accord (GNA) in Libya could well have brought the head of the Turkish intelligence service, Hakan Fidan, the promotion to the post of Foreign Minister or Turkish Ambassador in Washington, which he has been actively lobbying for a long time. However, Ankara is now embroiled in competition on several fronts at once, and “horses are not changed at the crossing.”
Turkey has already deployed significant manpower in Libya (scouts, commandos, Syrian mercenaries, as well as the TCG Gaziantep ship and a large number of Bayraktar TB2 unmanned aerial vehicles), and is now considering deploying F-16 fighters at Al-Batuy air base, which was repelled at the Libyan National Army on May 18. However, such a scenario would be extremely difficult without Washington’s tacit consent.
This begs the question — will the Americans take further steps to support Turkey in Libya after they have seriously helped the Turks with their electronic warfare system in the last month? Against this background, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants to maintain a strategic balance in Libya and with Moscow. At the same time, in Syria, the fragile Russian-Turkish truce is becoming increasingly shaky. The recent resumption of local operations by Damascus with the support of Moscow has put Ankara in a difficult position.
With the financial stimulation of the UAE, Syrian Kurds, who use the PKK rear bases in Iraq, have intensified. On May 27, a Turkish soldier died as a result of the explosion, and on May 31, Turkey deployed additional artillery in this zone and launched a local operation against Kurdish units.
To speak in this situation also about some kind of military activity in Yemen is inappropriate. Turks and Qatari will influence the situation there through humanitarian and financial injections to loyal forces, which is enough to seriously ruin the life of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, because they have no real interest in restoring a peaceful life in Yemen.