Egypt will help Libyans cope with the “ Turkish syndrome”

On July 20, the Egyptian Parliament unanimously approved the possible dispatch of the country’s military to perform combat missions outside of Egypt. According to the Constitution, the President can send Egyptian troops on a combat mission outside the country after obtaining the consent of Parliament. Egyptian TV reported on the official start of coordination with the Libyan leadership, and social networks do not doubt that we are talking about the transfer of the Egyptian army to Libya and it is unlikely that we are talking about a short jaunt. President Abd al-Fattah al-Sisi is expected to speak soon.

Egypt’s intervention in the Libyan conflict seems inevitable and is caused by the actions of Turkey. Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, commander of the Libyan national army, and the Libyan Parliament appealed to the Egyptian authorities for help in the fight against the NTC and Pro-Turkish terrorists, who are strongly associated with the Muslim Brotherhood movement in Cairo.

The decision of the Egyptian authorities does not seem spontaneous. On 20 July, foreign Minister Sameh shoukry visited Amman, where he met with his Jordanian counterpart, Ayman al-Safadi. The parties agreed that Cairo promotes the resumption of contacts between Ramallah and Washington, and contributes to strengthening Jordan’s position in relation to the White House. In return, the Kingdom acts as an intermediary between Egypt and Turkey in Libya. On the same day, Egyptian leader Abdel Fattah al-Sisi discussed the situation in Libya with US President Donald trump by phone. And then “unexpectedly” the Egyptian Parliament allows the President to send troops outside the country.

Of course, Egypt has something to fight for in Libya — ensuring the presence of friendly forces on the problematic Egyptian-Libyan border, access to oil wealth in the East, and a flick on the nose of the Muslim Brotherhood. On the other side of the scale is a prolonged presence in Libya, which is fraught with a clash with local patriots who are no longer happy with the Egyptian “liberators”, a head-on clash with Turkey and a heavy burden on the budget.

At the same time, the decision of the Parliament does not mean that the Egyptian army will actually be transferred to Libya in the near future, because it is not as easy as it seems. It is necessary to take into account the position of Algeria, Sudan, Italy, France, the UAE and Russia. Troops will be sent only if the Turks violate the red line marked by the President of Egypt — Sirte and al-Jufra. For al-Sisi, a political solution to the Libyan crisis is a priority.

So it all depends on Turkey-to leave the decision of the Egyptian Parliament on paper or to provoke a regional war that will certainly cover other countries in the region.

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