After solving the Idleb problem, will there be a peace?

The meeting of Russian and Turkish Presidents Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan on September 17 in Sochi brought a “serious and coordinated” decision on the situation in the Syrian province of Idlib.

Moscow and Ankara agreed to create by 15 October along the contact line between the government Syrian Arab army and the “armed opposition” demilitarized zone of 15–20 kilometers in depth. The perimeter of the zone will be controlled by the Russian military police and the Turkish army. By October 10, at the suggestion of the Turkish president, it is supposed “to carry out the withdrawal of heavy weapons, tanks, rocket launcher systems, guns and mortars of all opposition groups from this zone. Control in the demilitarized zone to organize mobile patrol groups of Turkish units and units of the Russian military police. “ In the near future, additional consultations will be held with the leadership of the Syrian Arab Republic. However, this approach is generally supported by Damascus. Until the end of 2018, a transit message should be restored in Syria along the Aleppo — Latakia and Aleppo — Hama lines.

Erdogan agreed that “territories that are under the control of the Syrian opposition must be demilitarized. The opposition that controls these territories will continue to remain there, but at the same time together with Russia we will do our best to eliminate all radical groups from these territories. “

With regard to the Syrian political settlement, Russia and Turkey will continue to follow the Astana format, which includes the formation of a constitutional committee “from among the representatives of the Syrian leadership, opposition forces and civil society. The task is to ensure the launch of his work in the very near future … The practical implementation of the planned steps will give an additional impetus to the process of political settlement of the Syrian conflict, will allow activating work on the Geneva platform and will contribute to the return of peace to the Syrian land, “said Russian leader V.Putin. The fight against terrorism in all its manifestations will continue.

Also, the defense ministers of Russia and Turkey signed a special memorandum on Idlib. Sergei Shoigu confirmed that there will be no military operation in Idlib. Earlier, during the negotiations in Tehran, the Turkish president actively objected to the launch of this military operation, pointing out its negative humanitarian consequences and proposing “not to seek excuses, pretexts for bombing this region.”

In reality, Turkey fears the liberation of Idlib by the Syrian army, with the assistance of Moscow and Tehran, as the Syrian Arab Baba, Dzherbalus and Afrina, then occupied by Turks, may come, after which the influence of Ankara in Syria (in this former territory of the Ottoman Empire) will dramatically decrease.

Speaking earlier about Idlib while communicating with journalists aboard the governmental airliner returning from Baku (Azerbaijan), Erdogan acknowledged the obvious: “It is true that we are strengthening the positions of our military. We can not allow us to have any weak spots there, so we will continue to strengthen. If we do not strengthen our observation posts, then someone else can take the initiative, as a result of which civilians may suffer, “waving Turkish flags.

This is the President of Turkey talking about the territory of a neighboring state, which did not invite either Turkish military, or even more pro-Turkish fighters (including from Xinjiang). And the question of whether they, like the previously “irreconcilable” people from Eastern Guta or Der’aa who were brought to the provinces, to comply with the “demilitarized zone” regime, can not even be asked. Recall, in May 2017 in Syria, four “de-escalation zones” were created, including in the province of Idlib, bordering with Turkey. According to Syrian and Russian military sources, the militants concentrated there, relying on the support of Western special services, could prepare an offensive against Aleppo, Hamu, even Damascus. Some terrorist gangs in the beginning of September tried to break into the direction of the American-occupied Al-Tanf, but these attempts were stopped by the Syrian army and the Russian military security services. The firing of neighboring territories continues, including the north-western part of Aleppo, where people continue to die.

Now, the Turkish army, which controls the north-west of Syria and creates there military infrastructure, is given a chance to separate the militants of terrorist groups from those considered “moderate” and “peaceful people” in Ankara. How they will do it and what the Turks will be able to do with the unwilling to disarm and withdraw from Syria by the terrorist group “Djebhat an Nusra” banned in Russia, will show very soon.

There is unconfirmed information that the Turkish army seems ready to attack any group that refuses to comply with Ankara’s demands, and “jihad warriors” are invited either to leave Syria or die in Idlib. Perhaps, however, some of these jihadists will prefer to keep , dissolving among the local clients of the Turkish special services, hardly distinguishable from them. Undoubtedly, Washington, which is dragging out the Syrian war, will use Erdogan’s concern for “peaceful people” waving Idlib with both Turkish flags and black banners of the Islamic state “(IG). Maybe, there will be concern for “peaceful people” in the “white helmets”, preparing another staging “chemical attack of the Assad regime.”

Immediately after the Sochi talks of the leaders of Russia and Turkey, it became known that the Syrian air defense forces had repelled a missile attack on Latakia. The Syrian military source noted that the attack was carried out from the sea. The blow was inflicted by four F-16 Air Force Israel. Also, missile launches from a French frigate were recorded. Later, about 23.00 on September 17, it became known that communication with the crew of the radio-electronic reconnaissance aircraft and electronic warfare of the Il-20 VKS of Russia, which was located 35 kilometers from the coast, was lost. The Russian Ministry of Defense stated: “Covering themselves with a Russian plane, Israeli pilots placed it under the fire of Syria’s air defenses. As a result of the irresponsible actions of the Israeli side, 15 Russian servicemen were killed. “

Earlier, Israel struck another missile attack on the airport of Damascus.

Will the peace in Syria bring flooding events and arrangements — time will tell. Meanwhile, the war continues to collect its bloody harvest in Syria.



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